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In December 2023, Vladimir Putin declared that the 2024 BRICS Summit, hosted by Russia, would be focused on establishing a “fair world order” based on shared principles. At the core of Putin’s goals for stronger BRICS economic integration is a longstanding and overriding objective to provide a viable alternative to the West’s global hegemony in nearly all facets of political, military, economic, financial, and security affairs.

Challenging Western Dominance

Creating a common currency designed to curtail — and displace – the dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency has been a central theme when the BRICS Summit was formalized in 2009 with initial founding membership of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Today, the dollar remains the commanding currency in global transactions, involved in an overwhelming number of exchanges, although a growing number of dealings involve the euro.

Putin has recently called for BRICS to establish a “safer and harmonious world” with a goal towards creating its own parliament.

Today, BRICS as an intergovernmental organization is comprised of Russia, China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia, due to join formally in January 2024, has not yet declared its official membership, while rumors persist that North Korea is seeking affiliation. Argentina was also invited to join, although newly elected President Javier Milei has made it clear the nation will not be joining in the near-term.

In his recent speech, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell focused on the fragilities of the labor market and is preparing markets for the new phase for policy. “The time has come for policy to adjust.” A soft landing looks achievable, barring any shocks. Disinflation while preserving labor market strength is only possible with anchored inflation expectations, so an independent and credible central bank is key. One of the best concepts in the speech for investors to understand is the current data shows an evolving macro landscape. The jury is still out on if the Fed can successfully manage the risks to both sides of their dual mandate.

What a Difference a Year Makes

Last summer, Jerome Powell ended his Jackson Hole speech with an intimidating tone — this tone was almost gone at this year’s symposium. He pivoted his policy inclinations from “We will keep at it until the job is done” to a more calming promise that “The time has come for policy to adjust.”

This clarity is just what the markets wanted. As consumer prices are no longer rising at breakneck speed, the Fed can move on to the other part of its dual mandate for full employment.

The Fragilities of the Job Market

What we learned from Jackson Hole is the Fed is interested in preparing markets for the committee to start cutting rates at the September 18 meeting and to start a measured process of cutting throughout the rest of this year and into next.

Every year as the summer months draw near their end, LPL Financial hosts its annual conference for financial advisors. While the conference is an excellent opportunity for advisors to expand upon professional interests, discover ways to enhance their impact on clients, and connect with industry experts — learning is a two-way street. At this year’s big event with nearly 9,000 attendees in sunny San Diego, the LPL Research team had the unique opportunity to connect with many of these advisors in person to get their perspectives on the capital markets. Below are some of the frequently asked questions from the road.

Equity Discussions

The VIX spike and subsequent collapse. After a historic 65 reading on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of implied volatility for the S&P 500, just a week before the conference, combined with an upcoming presidential election, we would have expected more jittery advisors. However, we noted just the opposite. In fact, far fewer discussions than expected were around the recent spike in the VIX and the election, reflecting the quick return to calm by the VIX, which is well below its long-term average of 19–20, and down a remarkable 50 points in two weeks. Commonly referred to as the “fear gauge,” a rising VIX is associated with increased fear and uncertainty in the marketplace and falling stock prices, and vice versa for a declining VIX. An underwhelming July employment report and the unwinding of the yen carry trade created a storm of volatility earlier this month (more on the carry trade below). The VIX jumped to as high as 65.73 on August 5, marking its highest intraday reading since March 2020. Fear has dissipated and stocks have subsequently rebounded as economic data improved and currency markets stabilized. Technically, the VIX has pulled back through the April highs and appears poised to retest support near its 200-day moving average (dma). A break below this level would add to the evidence of the market shifting back toward a risk-on backdrop.

The LPL Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) determines the firm’s investment outlook and asset allocation that helps define LPL Research’s investment models and overall strategic and tactical investment thinking and guidance. The committee is chaired by the chief investment officer and includes investment specialists from multiple investment disciplines and areas of focus. The STAAC meets weekly to foster a close monitoring of all global economic and capital markets conditions to ensure that all the latest information is being digested and incorporated into its investment thought.

The first half of the year was a challenging environment for a lot of fixed income markets, especially higher-quality markets. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) seemingly unlikely to lower interest rates until after the summer months (at the earliest), the “higher for longer” narrative has kept a lid on any sort of bond market rally. While falling interest rates help provide price appreciation in this higher-for-longer environment, fixed income investors are likely better served by focusing on income opportunities, which has been the traditional goal of fixed income investors. Investors can best navigate the latecycle economic environment by adding high-quality bonds, offering attractive risk-adjusted returns, and lowering overall portfolio volatility. Consider moving away from cash, with the Fed likely to cut rates in the second half.

Key Themes for the Second Half

Sharp shifts in interest rate expectations have been a hallmark of the bond market over the last few years, but with volatility comes opportunity, and investors should consider:

• Current Bond Yield Levels Offer Opportunity: Treasury yields are near their highest levels in decades, making fixed income an attractive asset class again. Investors can build diversified portfolios with high-quality bonds offering attractive returns.
• Focus on Income: With rate cuts likely, a focus on income generation becomes more important for fixed income investors than price appreciation. Consider fixed income over cash.
• Don't Expect Big Moves in Longer-Term Yields: An inverted yield curve suggests limited potential for significant declines in longer-term bond yields.
• Mind the Gap: Fixed income volatility in the first half was characterized by changing rate cut expectations. Second half volatility will likely be due to changing expectations on the depth of rate-cuts expected in the rate-cutting cycle. Currently, there is a gap between market expectations and Fed communication.
• Election Volatility/Noise: As we get closer to Election Day, economic policy uncertainty will likely pick up as each political party jockeys for votes. High economic uncertainty has historically been constructive for core bonds, (as explained in “Election Anxiety? Could Bonds Calm Your Fears?”) but high expected budget deficits could keep interest rates elevated.

With stock valuations elevated after such a strong first half, earnings growth will be key to holding, or potentially building on these gains. LPL Research believes stocks have gotten a bit over their skis, but earnings season may not be the catalyst for a pullback in the near term given all signs point to another solid earnings season and stocks have mostly performed well during the peak weeks of reporting season in recent years. We may not get an increase in second-half estimates over the next couple of months — that's a lot to ask — but we should get a few points of upside and double-digit earnings growth for the second quarter on the back of technology strength.

Return to Double Digits

Earnings season is right around the corner, with the big banks — JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) — scheduled to report on July 12. With the consensus expectations currently calling for a 9% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS), a double-digit gain for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021 looks highly likely. That’s the main headline, but the sub-headline is the composition of that earnings growth.

Expect Double-Digit Earnings Growth in The Second Quarter

Developments in artificial intelligence may be the antidote for an aging population, but it takes time for these advancements to work themselves into the fabric of our nation’s businesses. The impact of new developments can persist in markets, so investors need to carefully discern what could be different this time around.

"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time is different.'" — Sir John Templeton

ARE WE IN A BUBBLE?

While some are drawing parallels between the current period and the late-1990s tech bubble and concluding that a crash may be coming, that’s not our view at all. This market environment is very different given who is leading the charge – the highest quality, most profitable companies in the world – and much lower valuations. Still, we think this history lesson can be instructive. The internet buildout took a number of years to play out, suggesting this buildout and its impact on stock prices may still only be in the early-to-middle innings. A Stanford University professor has some insights we will share later in this commentary.

Now, that doesn't mean technology stocks are going to continue to surge for years to come. There are many other important factors that matter than just artificial intelligence (AI). A likely path for markets, we believe, is a pullback or mild correction in the second half, offering investors the opportunity to buy on dips. We would not chase this narrow, AI-fueled rally, and maintain our neutral recommended technology allocation.

The LPL Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) determines the firm’s investment outlook and asset allocation that helps define LPL Research’s investment models and overall strategic and tactical investment thinking and guidance. The committee is chaired by the chief investment officer and includes investment specialists from multiple investment disciplines and areas of focus. The STAAC meets weekly to foster a close monitoring of all global economic and capital markets conditions to ensure that all the latest information is being digested and incorporated into its investment thought.

Jeffrey Roach, PhD, Chief Economist
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist

When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets and the economy had legs. So, the variety of the data produced the narrative that business activity in the New Year would grow on an annual basis but experience some bumps in the first half of the year. Now, enter the revisions.

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist

A positive January has historically been a bullish sign for stocks. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”, first discovered this seasonal pattern back in 1972, which he called the January Barometer and coined its popular tagline of ‘As goes January, so goes this year.’ Here, we assess the likelihood that this popular stock market adage delivers more gains for investors this year. The weight of the evidence leans toward yes, as we explain.