The Objective Advisor

When it comes to investing, the biggest threat to your portfolio isn’t the market—it’s your own brain. Evolution equipped us to survive in a world of immediate threats, not to stay calm in the face of volatile markets or abstract probabilities. As a result, our instincts often push us toward short-term comfort and away from long-term wealth.

We buy when others are euphoric, sell when fear takes hold, and convince ourselves that this time is different. As decades of behavioral research have shown, investors usually lose not because the odds are stacked against them—but because their biases and impulses overpower their logic.

The best investors build their edge not from secret data or complex models but from temperament. They cultivate awareness of their tendencies toward overconfidence, loss aversion, and herd behavior, structuring their decision-making to guard against them.

Self-mastery in investing is not about suppressing emotion; it’s about designing processes that keep emotion from driving critical decisions. Reflection creates that process.

Mastering investing starts with mastering yourself. By recognizing the psychological traps that evolution wired into us—and engineering systems to counter them—you shift the playing field in your favor by cultivating intentionality.

Developments in artificial intelligence may be the antidote for an aging population, but it takes time for these advancements to work themselves into the fabric of our nation’s businesses. The impact of new developments can persist in markets, so investors need to carefully discern what could be different this time around.

"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time is different.'" — Sir John Templeton

ARE WE IN A BUBBLE?

While some are drawing parallels between the current period and the late-1990s tech bubble and concluding that a crash may be coming, that’s not our view at all. This market environment is very different given who is leading the charge – the highest quality, most profitable companies in the world – and much lower valuations. Still, we think this history lesson can be instructive. The internet buildout took a number of years to play out, suggesting this buildout and its impact on stock prices may still only be in the early-to-middle innings. A Stanford University professor has some insights we will share later in this commentary.

Now, that doesn't mean technology stocks are going to continue to surge for years to come. There are many other important factors that matter than just artificial intelligence (AI). A likely path for markets, we believe, is a pullback or mild correction in the second half, offering investors the opportunity to buy on dips. We would not chase this narrow, AI-fueled rally, and maintain our neutral recommended technology allocation.

Every year as the summer months draw near their end, LPL Financial hosts its annual conference for financial advisors. While the conference is an excellent opportunity for advisors to expand upon professional interests, discover ways to enhance their impact on clients, and connect with industry experts — learning is a two-way street. At this year’s big event with nearly 9,000 attendees in sunny San Diego, the LPL Research team had the unique opportunity to connect with many of these advisors in person to get their perspectives on the capital markets. Below are some of the frequently asked questions from the road.

Equity Discussions

The VIX spike and subsequent collapse. After a historic 65 reading on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of implied volatility for the S&P 500, just a week before the conference, combined with an upcoming presidential election, we would have expected more jittery advisors. However, we noted just the opposite. In fact, far fewer discussions than expected were around the recent spike in the VIX and the election, reflecting the quick return to calm by the VIX, which is well below its long-term average of 19–20, and down a remarkable 50 points in two weeks. Commonly referred to as the “fear gauge,” a rising VIX is associated with increased fear and uncertainty in the marketplace and falling stock prices, and vice versa for a declining VIX. An underwhelming July employment report and the unwinding of the yen carry trade created a storm of volatility earlier this month (more on the carry trade below). The VIX jumped to as high as 65.73 on August 5, marking its highest intraday reading since March 2020. Fear has dissipated and stocks have subsequently rebounded as economic data improved and currency markets stabilized. Technically, the VIX has pulled back through the April highs and appears poised to retest support near its 200-day moving average (dma). A break below this level would add to the evidence of the market shifting back toward a risk-on backdrop.

As we approach Thanksgiving, the thought of discussing money matters with our loved ones can stir up all kinds of emotions. Those conversations can feel as tricky as trying to carve the perfect turkey—so delicate!

But here's a little food for thought: being real and open about financial topics with your family and friends could actually strengthen your bonds in ways you might not expect. Sure, it might be tempting to dodge the money chat and stick to lighter topics like the weather or holiday recipes. However, embracing these conversations can lead to a deeper understanding and connection with those you care about. It's a chance to share values, learn from each other's experiences, and support one another across the generational divide.

If you need more specific guidance on how to kickstart these conversations or navigate other tricky topics this holiday season, don't hesitate to reach out. Together, we can make this Thanksgiving one filled with unforgettable memories and stronger connections that last many lifetimes.

Enjoy the articles below, curated for you from the financial world this week. And please have a safe and happy Thanksgiving!

Thank you,
Paul Celentano

Since the decisions you make today shape the financial well-being of tomorrow, I invite you to explore a concept that extends beyond numbers and spreadsheets: the courage to be disliked.

One key aspect of this concept is the separation of tasks. Clearly delineating what is within your control alleviates the pressure of external expectations, freeing you to prioritize decisions that align with your unique goals, rather than succumbing to societal norms or peer pressure.

Your relationships also play a crucial role in how you manage finances. Embracing the courage to be disliked encourages building those based on mutual respect and trust, rather than seeking approval. This shift allows you to engage in open discussions about financial strategies without the paralyzing fear of judgment.

Moreover, a key tenet of this philosophy is focusing on teleology—our aspirations and goals—rather than etiology—our past. While understanding where you’ve come from is important, success depends on where you’re headed. Concentrating on the future will empower you to make purposeful decisions that propel you forward, rather than being anchored by past financial mistakes or limitations.

Let's work together to cultivate the courage to make bold financial decisions—with the confidence that comes from being true to yourself and your own idiosyncratic life journey.

Have you ever wondered why some people prioritize saving every penny, while others thrive on spending? Or why financial discussions can sometimes become tense between friends, partners, or family members? The lens we each use to view money—our "money personality"—plays a significant role in how we manage finances and interact with others.

Identifying your money personality will increase your self-awareness, enhancing your approach to financial planning by allowing you to play to your strengths while also addressing potential challenges. It will also open the door to empathy and appreciation for the diverse money personalities of those close to you.

These articles will help you discover your money personality, while offering practical tips on how to use this knowledge to build a more harmonious relationship with your finances. By understanding the dynamics of how different money personalities interact, you can navigate financial conversations with greater confidence and mutual respect. Please share them with anyone who could benefit from their valuable contents.

Understanding your financial behavior, alongside that of others, holds the key to not just improving your personal finances but creating a more understanding and supportive financial environment for you and your loved ones.

As always, I’m here to help with any questions or concerns about your financial plan, so please reach out with whatever’s on your mind.

In times of uncertainty, the wisdom of Stoicism offers valuable insights—not just for our finances but also for our overall wellbeing.

The core tenet of Stoicism is distinguishing between what we can’t control, such as market fluctuations, interest rates, or economic downturns, and what we can—how we respond. Maintaining a disciplined approach to saving and investing by avoiding reactive decisions based on fear or avarice is the best way to manage and grow the resources at your disposal.

Another Stoic principle is the practice of mindful simplicity. Focusing on the essentials of your wellbeing by avoiding unnecessary investment products and spending will lead to mental clarity and better financial health in the long run.

A third Stoic-based suggestion is the importance of cultivating contentment. For the Stoics, true wealth is about leading a fulfilled life. Therefore, be sure to regularly reflect upon what truly matters to you, ensuring that your financial decisions align with your life’s purpose.

Remember: while global events like tariffs and geopolitical tensions are beyond our control, how we respond to them is not. Stoicism teaches us to accept our current reality without despair, focusing instead on how best to navigate whatever challenges we encounter.

With summer upon us, many are ready for a well-deserved break or vacation. As you recharge, this season can also be a good time to reflect on your broader financial picture—especially how others’ choices are affecting your own.

We often view our financial status as a series of purely personal decisions—what to save, how to invest, when to spend. But these decisions rarely happen in a vacuum. Whether it’s a family member’s needs, a business partner’s influence, or shared living arrangements, the choices of others in our lives have a real impact. Some helpful tips are found in the articles below. As summer brings families together, we’re more aware than ever how interconnected our financial decisions can be.

While we can’t control every action of those around us, it’s beneficial to prepare and communicate. If you want to discuss how others’ decisions are affecting your finances—or simply talk about some of the challenges you’re facing—let’s connect. I’m here to help you make the most of your summer and develop a strategy for what’s ahead.

Thank you,
Paul Celentano

In the world of finance and investing, we often talk about numbers, trends, and strategies. But equally important to long-term success is a quality that doesn’t appear on balance sheets: humility. Recognizing what we know and—perhaps more importantly—what we don’t is essential to making sound financial decisions.

It is tempting to believe AI will provide clear and reliable answers. While these technologies hold significant promise, they can also produce “hallucinations”—outputs that appear confident and authoritative while being factually incorrect.

This dynamic mirrors an important principle in financial planning: when we assume certainty where none exists, we expose ourselves to risks we may not fully appreciate. Admitting uncertainty is not a weakness but a strength—it creates room for caution, curiosity, and collaboration.

My role is not only to provide guidance based on experience and evidence but also to serve as a partner in navigating complexity. Financial success is not a single transaction or one-time plan—it is an evolving process built on ongoing communication and mutual trust.

By working together consistently, we can combine insights, ask hard questions, and avoid common temptations, giving you the best chance to achieve sustainable, long-term results.

A difficult truth in life is that if we are never wrong, we probably aren’t trying hard enough. There is comfort in sticking with what we know and in reinforcing our assumptions rather than questioning them. Psychologists call this confirmation bias: the inclination to seek out evidence that tells us we’re right and to avoid what might suggest otherwise.

However, markets are unpredictable by nature. Economic conditions shift, new opportunities arise, and risks evolve. A willingness to ask, “What if I’m wrong?” is a safeguard, not an embarrassment. It’s a mindset that protects your assets, positioning you for long-term growth.

And while saving and strategizing are essential, immiserating yourself and loved ones in favor of an always uncertain future is not the path to abundance. In fact, the act of giving—whether to family, causes you care about, or your community—not only enriches others but brings a profound sense of prosperity and fulfillment.

I encourage you to lean into curiosity, to be open to revisiting assumptions, even uncomfortable ones, and to keep in mind that wealth is not measured only by numbers. It’s measured by the security it provides, the opportunities it allows, and the generosity it enables.

Thank you, as always, for your trust in me. I consider it a privilege to help you chart a path that honors both your future security and your present happiness.