The Objective Advisor

If it seems like every week brings a new plot twist — geopolitical and domestic conflicts, emerging tech, policy changes — and then the food pyramid gets flipped! You’re not imagining it: The world is moving quickly and the rate of change is accelerating. Still, that’s not a reason for worry; it’s a cue to stay calm and focus on what holds steady beneath the noise.

Among all the forecasts, one truth stands out: nobody knows exactly what’s coming. That’s not a flaw in the system—it’s the nature of it. The good news is that thoughtful, consistent habits have a way of working through the ups and downs. Markets adjust. Perspective is what’s important. History shows that patience and persistence tend to win out over time.

Every year as the summer months draw near their end, LPL Financial hosts its annual conference for financial advisors. While the conference is an excellent opportunity for advisors to expand upon professional interests, discover ways to enhance their impact on clients, and connect with industry experts — learning is a two-way street. At this year’s big event with nearly 9,000 attendees in sunny San Diego, the LPL Research team had the unique opportunity to connect with many of these advisors in person to get their perspectives on the capital markets. Below are some of the frequently asked questions from the road.

Equity Discussions

The VIX spike and subsequent collapse. After a historic 65 reading on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of implied volatility for the S&P 500, just a week before the conference, combined with an upcoming presidential election, we would have expected more jittery advisors. However, we noted just the opposite. In fact, far fewer discussions than expected were around the recent spike in the VIX and the election, reflecting the quick return to calm by the VIX, which is well below its long-term average of 19–20, and down a remarkable 50 points in two weeks. Commonly referred to as the “fear gauge,” a rising VIX is associated with increased fear and uncertainty in the marketplace and falling stock prices, and vice versa for a declining VIX. An underwhelming July employment report and the unwinding of the yen carry trade created a storm of volatility earlier this month (more on the carry trade below). The VIX jumped to as high as 65.73 on August 5, marking its highest intraday reading since March 2020. Fear has dissipated and stocks have subsequently rebounded as economic data improved and currency markets stabilized. Technically, the VIX has pulled back through the April highs and appears poised to retest support near its 200-day moving average (dma). A break below this level would add to the evidence of the market shifting back toward a risk-on backdrop.

Developments in artificial intelligence may be the antidote for an aging population, but it takes time for these advancements to work themselves into the fabric of our nation’s businesses. The impact of new developments can persist in markets, so investors need to carefully discern what could be different this time around.

"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time is different.'" — Sir John Templeton

ARE WE IN A BUBBLE?

While some are drawing parallels between the current period and the late-1990s tech bubble and concluding that a crash may be coming, that’s not our view at all. This market environment is very different given who is leading the charge – the highest quality, most profitable companies in the world – and much lower valuations. Still, we think this history lesson can be instructive. The internet buildout took a number of years to play out, suggesting this buildout and its impact on stock prices may still only be in the early-to-middle innings. A Stanford University professor has some insights we will share later in this commentary.

Now, that doesn't mean technology stocks are going to continue to surge for years to come. There are many other important factors that matter than just artificial intelligence (AI). A likely path for markets, we believe, is a pullback or mild correction in the second half, offering investors the opportunity to buy on dips. We would not chase this narrow, AI-fueled rally, and maintain our neutral recommended technology allocation.

As we approach Thanksgiving, the thought of discussing money matters with our loved ones can stir up all kinds of emotions. Those conversations can feel as tricky as trying to carve the perfect turkey—so delicate!

But here's a little food for thought: being real and open about financial topics with your family and friends could actually strengthen your bonds in ways you might not expect. Sure, it might be tempting to dodge the money chat and stick to lighter topics like the weather or holiday recipes. However, embracing these conversations can lead to a deeper understanding and connection with those you care about. It's a chance to share values, learn from each other's experiences, and support one another across the generational divide.

If you need more specific guidance on how to kickstart these conversations or navigate other tricky topics this holiday season, don't hesitate to reach out. Together, we can make this Thanksgiving one filled with unforgettable memories and stronger connections that last many lifetimes.

Enjoy the articles below, curated for you from the financial world this week. And please have a safe and happy Thanksgiving!

Thank you,
Paul Celentano

Since the decisions you make today shape the financial well-being of tomorrow, I invite you to explore a concept that extends beyond numbers and spreadsheets: the courage to be disliked.

One key aspect of this concept is the separation of tasks. Clearly delineating what is within your control alleviates the pressure of external expectations, freeing you to prioritize decisions that align with your unique goals, rather than succumbing to societal norms or peer pressure.

Have you ever wondered why some people prioritize saving every penny, while others thrive on spending? Or why financial discussions can sometimes become tense between friends, partners, or family members? The lens we each use to view money—our "money personality"—plays a significant role in how we manage finances and interact with others.

Identifying your money personality will increase your self-awareness, enhancing your approach to financial planning by allowing you to play to your strengths while also addressing potential challenges. It will also open the door to empathy and appreciation for the diverse money personalities of those close to you.

In times of uncertainty, the wisdom of Stoicism offers valuable insights—not just for our finances but also for our overall wellbeing.

The core tenet of Stoicism is distinguishing between what we can’t control, such as market fluctuations, interest rates, or economic downturns, and what we can—how we respond. Maintaining a disciplined approach to saving and investing by avoiding reactive decisions based on fear or avarice is the best way to manage and grow the resources at your disposal.

With summer upon us, many are ready for a well-deserved break or vacation. As you recharge, this season can also be a good time to reflect on your broader financial picture—especially how others’ choices are affecting your own.

We often view our financial status as a series of purely personal decisions—what to save, how to invest, when to spend. But these decisions rarely happen in a vacuum. Whether it’s a family member’s needs, a business partner’s influence, or shared living arrangements, the choices of others in our lives have a real impact. Some helpful tips are found in the articles below. As summer brings families together, we’re more aware than ever how interconnected our financial decisions can be.

In the world of finance and investing, we often talk about numbers, trends, and strategies. But equally important to long-term success is a quality that doesn’t appear on balance sheets: humility. Recognizing what we know and—perhaps more importantly—what we don’t is essential to making sound financial decisions.

It is tempting to believe AI will provide clear and reliable answers. While these technologies hold significant promise, they can also produce “hallucinations”—outputs that appear confident and authoritative while being factually incorrect.

A difficult truth in life is that if we are never wrong, we probably aren’t trying hard enough. There is comfort in sticking with what we know and in reinforcing our assumptions rather than questioning them. Psychologists call this confirmation bias: the inclination to seek out evidence that tells us we’re right and to avoid what might suggest otherwise.

However, markets are unpredictable by nature. Economic conditions shift, new opportunities arise, and risks evolve. A willingness to ask, “What if I’m wrong?” is a safeguard, not an embarrassment. It’s a mindset that protects your assets, positioning you for long-term growth.

When it comes to investing, the biggest threat to your portfolio isn’t the market—it’s your own brain. Evolution equipped us to survive in a world of immediate threats, not to stay calm in the face of volatile markets or abstract probabilities. As a result, our instincts often push us toward short-term comfort and away from long-term wealth.

We buy when others are euphoric, sell when fear takes hold, and convince ourselves that this time is different. As decades of behavioral research have shown, investors usually lose not because the odds are stacked against them—but because their biases and impulses overpower their logic.

Many of us are taught that wealth is the bridge to the life we want—that if we work and sacrifice enough now, we’ll eventually arrive at a time and place where we can finally “live.”

But there’s a danger in that kind of tradeoff. When we give up what is good, meaningful, and nourishing in the present in exchange for a distant promise of freedom later, we overlook a simple truth: the person you will be years from now will not be the same person you are today. You “future you” may no longer want the things you sacrificed to earn them.

Please pass the pumpkin pie—and that paperwork you’ve been putting off.

Thanksgiving is about good food, friends, family, and gratitude. But it’s also a rare pause in our busy year, a moment when everyone finally ends up in the same room. Between the laughter and the leftovers, it might be the perfect time to do something unexpectedly meaningful: talk together about the future.