The Objective Advisor

For all the headlines telling us people are burned out, overspending, under-saving, distracted, anxious, and financially behind… there’s actually some good news emerging underneath the surface.

Last week, reports showed that the number of Americans with “super prime” credit scores — generally considered 780 and above — is growing, especially among younger adults. Even amid inflation, talk of AI taking jobs, and global tensions in the Middle East affecting energy prices and travel, many people are becoming more thoughtful and disciplined with their financial lives instead of less. They’ve been paying attention! They’re also asking questions about debt and setting long-term visions for a better future.

We're living longer than any previous generation. The real measure, though, has never been the length of a life but the quality of it. And that raises a question that doesn't get asked often enough: is your financial life structured to support the kind of life you actually want to sustain?

Graduations, Mother's Day, summer plans, and climbing healthcare costs are all landing at once — and each one, in its own way, asks something of your financial life. Many people are telling me they're feeling the tension, quietly pulling back on spending that supports their wellbeing, skipping preventive care, delaying therapy, or trading time for money while costs continue to rise.

Mark Twain once observed that "it ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." Few insights apply more directly to investing than this one.

There is a well-known framework describing four stages of learning. We begin unconsciously incompetent—unaware of our gaps. We then become consciously incompetent—aware of them. Then, with effort, we grow toward genuine competence. That second stage is the critical turning point. Recognizing what you don't know isn’t weakness; it’s the beginning of wisdom.

“Money is like gas in the car — you need to pay attention or you’ll end up on the side of the road — but a well-lived life is not a tour of gas stations.” Author Tim O’Reilly’s observation feels especially relevant this week as inflation and conflict with Iran add pressure to summer travel costs and everyday expenses.

It’s easy to daydream about life outside work — more freedom, more time, more choice. But turning that picture pinto something durable takes more than good intentions. It takes preparation. The choices you’re making, like saving consistently, investing for the long term, managing deadlines, and shaping a sustainable lifestyle, will play a big role in how well your dreams hold up in the real world.

April has a way of encouraging magical thinking. Some are convinced there's still plenty of time before the April 15th tax deadline. Others imagine a refund check or a raise will solve more than it actually will. And according to a new survey, Americans now believe they'll need $1.46 million to retire comfortably, up $200,000 from just a year ago. That's a big increase!

For most people, it's an abstraction — a figure that feels more like a wish than a plan. Only about 12% of Americans earn $200,000 annually to begin with, let alone $200,000 more than they did last year.

Every year during March Madness, billions of dollars are wagered. A younger generation watches closely, absorbing lessons about prediction, risk, and reward that extend well beyond the brackets. Meanwhile, AI is reshaping industries, global conflicts continue shifting markets, and real questions persist about where disruption begins and opportunity is present.

Somewhere in the middle of all of it, you are making financial decisions — and whether we think about it or not, each one reflects something about what we value.

What if the most valuable meeting on your calendar this week is the one you're least looking forward to?

It's mid-March, and there's no shortage of things competing for your attention. Spring arrives this week. Tax deadlines are approaching. And the world beyond our windows remains restless—markets reacting to an unpredictable trade environment, persistent geopolitical tension, and an interest rate outlook that shifts with every data point.

A bold-faced phrase from a New York Times article last week got my attention. It consists of only two words, yet it speaks volumes about facing the future: And yet.

These two words introduce a life-changing perspective, especially in times of uncertainty.

As you undoubtedly know, last weekend, the United States and Israel entered into direct conflict with Iran, marking a serious escalation in the Middle East. Events like these remind us how quickly geopolitical tensions can intensify—and how closely global markets watch such developments.

When financial and geopolitical waves collide, markets often react first with uncertainty. We may see volatility in oil prices, shifts in defense and energy sectors, currency movements, and short-term swings in equity markets. While these reactions can be unsettling, it’s important to remember that markets have historically weathered wars, conflicts, and geopolitical crises before.

Stocks have done so well this year that it’s fair to say market participants haven’t feared much. But just because risks haven’t affected markets lately doesn’t mean they won’t in the future. In that “spirit,” as Halloween approaches, we discuss what scares us about the economy and financial markets.

The bar for third quarter earnings is low, with analysts currently expecting only about a 3% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS). That low bar and a supportive economic environment points to potential upside. However, stocks may already be pricing in solid results, with the S&P 500 up more than 7% since the third quarter began on July 1. Here we preview earnings season and discuss some of the key drivers of earnings growth in the year ahead.

On October 12, 2022, there were very few comments suggesting that a new bull market was in thethroes of being born as the S&P 500 opened at 3,590.83 and closed at 3,577.03.

After all, inflation was still running hot even though the Federal Reserve (Fed) began its rate-hiking campaign on March 16, 2022, by raising rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) and moving to a 50-basispoint hike on May 5, 2022, as it tried to quell inflationary pressures. By mid-June, a series of 75- basis-point hikes were introduced as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked in June at 9.1%.

When it comes to investing, gold may be the antithesis of artificial intelligence (AI). The precious metal has acted as a store of value for thousands of years with zero technological innovation — gold is discovered, not developed. Gold is also a real tangible asset and can act as a potential hedge against inflation or a safe haven during times of crisis. Given these properties and the backdrop of a risk-on-record-setting equity market, many investors are wondering what’s behind the paradoxical price action of gold’s rally to new highs and how the yellow metal has matched the momentum in AI stocks over the last several months (gold and the equal-weight Magnificent Seven Index are both up around 20% since March). Herein we discuss the key drivers of gold and why this rally is no flash in the pan.

Of course, last week’s headliner was Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by a half percent on Wednesday, September 18, the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. The Fed “pause” ended at 423 days and now stands as the second-longest on record, while the 26% gain for the S&P 500 during the pause (7/27/23–9/18/24) ranks first. Here we share some thoughts on the Fed’s move last week and some potential market implications of not only Fed policy but also fiscal policy post-election.

With the first presidential debate behind us, it’s safe to say election season is in full swing. While last week’s debate was light on economic policies, the future of tax policy (along with potential efforts to arrest elevated federal deficits) could have broad implications for the municipal (muni) market — some good, some not so good. With the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) set to sunset in 2025, the election will go a long way in determining the future of tax policy in the U.S. And for muni securities and their unique tax-exemption characteristics, the election will go a long way in determining future demand for the asset class. But with the Federal Reserve (Fed) embarking on a rate cutting cycle likely starting this week, the next few months could be the last “best time” to buy munis, regardless of changes to tax policy.

In December 2023, Vladimir Putin declared that the 2024 BRICS Summit, hosted by Russia, would be focused on establishing a “fair world order” based on shared principles. At the core of Putin’s goals for stronger BRICS economic integration is a longstanding and overriding objective to provide a viable alternative to the West’s global hegemony in nearly all facets of political, military, economic, financial, and security affairs.

When Fortune magazine asked an AI model to sum up Wall Street’s 2026 outlook in a single word, the result was the word “precarious.” It’s an interesting choice—and not entirely wrong. With markets weighing shifting interest rates, inflation trends, talk of an AI bubble and global realignments, “precarious” certainly could capture the moment. Yet while some analysts accept that word, you have the opportunity to choose your own.

In his recent speech, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell focused on the fragilities of the labor market and is preparing markets for the new phase for policy. “The time has come for policy to adjust.” A soft landing looks achievable, barring any shocks. Disinflation while preserving labor market strength is only possible with anchored inflation expectations, so an independent and credible central bank is key. One of the best concepts in the speech for investors to understand is the current data shows an evolving macro landscape. The jury is still out on if the Fed can successfully manage the risks to both sides of their dual mandate.

Second quarter earnings season is in the books, and it was a good one. S&P 500 companies collectively grew earnings at a double-digit pace for the first time in three years. Companies beat estimates at a solid 79% clip. Guidance from company CEOs and CFOs was relatively upbeat. And although some were a bit disappointed by big technology results based on stock reactions, the problem was high expectations more than anything else.

The LPL Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) determines the firm’s investment outlook and asset allocation that helps define LPL Research’s investment models and overall strategic and tactical investment thinking and guidance. The committee is chaired by the chief investment officer and includes investment specialists from multiple investment disciplines and areas of focus. The STAAC meets weekly to foster a close monitoring of all global economic and capital markets conditions to ensure that all the latest information is being digested and incorporated into its investment thought.

The first half of the year was a challenging environment for a lot of fixed income markets, especially higher-quality markets. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) seemingly unlikely to lower interest rates until after the summer months (at the earliest), the “higher for longer” narrative has kept a lid on any sort of bond market rally. While falling interest rates help provide price appreciation in this higher-for-longer environment, fixed income investors are likely better served by focusing on income opportunities, which has been the traditional goal of fixed income investors. Investors can best navigate the latecycle economic environment by adding high-quality bonds, offering attractive risk-adjusted returns, and lowering overall portfolio volatility. Consider moving away from cash, with the Fed likely to cut rates in the second half.

With stock valuations elevated after such a strong first half, earnings growth will be key to holding, or potentially building on these gains. LPL Research believes stocks have gotten a bit over their skis, but earnings season may not be the catalyst for a pullback in the near term given all signs point to another solid earnings season and stocks have mostly performed well during the peak weeks of reporting season in recent years. We may not get an increase in second-half estimates over the next couple of months — that's a lot to ask — but we should get a few points of upside and double-digit earnings growth for the second quarter on the back of technology strength.

Developments in artificial intelligence may be the antidote for an aging population, but it takes time for these advancements to work themselves into the fabric of our nation’s businesses. The impact of new developments can persist in markets, so investors need to carefully discern what could be different this time around.

The LPL Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) determines the firm’s investment outlook and asset allocation that helps define LPL Research’s investment models and overall strategic and tactical investment thinking and guidance. The committee is chaired by the chief investment officer and includes investment specialists from multiple investment disciplines and areas of focus. The STAAC meets weekly to foster a close monitoring of all global economic and capital markets conditions to ensure that all the latest information is being digested and incorporated into its investment thought.

Jeffrey Roach, PhD, Chief Economist
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist

When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets and the economy had legs. So, the variety of the data produced the narrative that business activity in the New Year would grow on an annual basis but experience some bumps in the first half of the year. Now, enter the revisions.

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist

A positive January has historically been a bullish sign for stocks. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”, first discovered this seasonal pattern back in 1972, which he called the January Barometer and coined its popular tagline of ‘As goes January, so goes this year.’ Here, we assess the likelihood that this popular stock market adage delivers more gains for investors this year. The weight of the evidence leans toward yes, as we explain.

The imposition of tariffs by the United States this week has understandably sparked volatility in the markets.

It's in the face of such challenges that our diversified, strategically balanced, long-term approach demonstrate their true value. Our goal has always been to withstand market ups and downs, minimizing exposure to individual market events and maximizing potential returns through diversified investments across various asset classes.

Most investors are familiar with risk tolerance — a psychological measure that reflects how you perceive risk and respond to market fluctuations. While understanding risk tolerance is essential, it doesn’t tell the whole story.

Risk capacity, in contrast, is an objective measure of your financial circumstances — not your feelings about risk. It analyzes your ability to absorb potential losses without jeopardizing your long-term goals. Factors such as your time horizon to retirement, income stability, savings rate, and future spending needs all determine how much risk you can afford to assume.

For decades, U.S. Treasury bonds were regarded as among the safest of investments—so reliable, in fact, that they came to be viewed as the foundation of the global financial system.

But today we are facing an environment where those old assumptions may no longer hold true. With U.S. debt growing at an accelerating pace, confidence in Treasuries is being tested in ways we have not seen for generations. What was once considered unquestionably secure is now subject to doubt, challenging the traditional idea that there are permanent “safe havens” in investing.