Jeffrey Roach, PhD, Chief Economist
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets and the economy had legs. So, the variety of the data produced the narrative that business activity in the New Year would grow on an annual basis but experience some bumps in the first half of the year. Now, enter the revisions.
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist
A positive January has historically been a bullish sign for stocks. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”, first discovered this seasonal pattern back in 1972, which he called the January Barometer and coined its popular tagline of ‘As goes January, so goes this year.’ Here, we assess the likelihood that this popular stock market adage delivers more gains for investors this year. The weight of the evidence leans toward yes, as we explain.
The LPL Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) determines the firm’s investment outlook and asset allocation that helps define LPL Research’s investment models and overall strategic and tactical investment thinking and guidance. The committee is chaired by the chief investment officer and includes investment specialists from multiple investment disciplines and areas of focus. The STAAC meets weekly to foster a close monitoring of all global economic and capital markets conditions to ensure that all the latest information is being digested and incorporated into its investment thought.
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Developments in artificial intelligence may be the antidote for an aging population, but it takes time for these advancements to work themselves into the fabric of our nation’s businesses. The impact of new developments can persist in markets, so investors need to carefully discern what could be different this time around.
"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time is different.'" — Sir John Templeton
While some are drawing parallels between the current period and the late-1990s tech bubble and concluding that a crash may be coming, that’s not our view at all. This market environment is very different given who is leading the charge – the highest quality, most profitable companies in the world – and much lower valuations. Still, we think this history lesson can be instructive. The internet buildout took a number of years to play out, suggesting this buildout and its impact on stock prices may still only be in the early-to-middle innings. A Stanford University professor has some insights we will share later in this commentary.
Now, that doesn't mean technology stocks are going to continue to surge for years to come. There are many other important factors that matter than just artificial intelligence (AI). A likely path for markets, we believe, is a pullback or mild correction in the second half, offering investors the opportunity to buy on dips. We would not chase this narrow, AI-fueled rally, and maintain our neutral recommended technology allocation.
With stock valuations elevated after such a strong first half, earnings growth will be key to holding, or potentially building on these gains. LPL Research believes stocks have gotten a bit over their skis, but earnings season may not be the catalyst for a pullback in the near term given all signs point to another solid earnings season and stocks have mostly performed well during the peak weeks of reporting season in recent years. We may not get an increase in second-half estimates over the next couple of months — that's a lot to ask — but we should get a few points of upside and double-digit earnings growth for the second quarter on the back of technology strength.
Earnings season is right around the corner, with the big banks — JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) — scheduled to report on July 12. With the consensus expectations currently calling for a 9% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS), a double-digit gain for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021 looks highly likely. That’s the main headline, but the sub-headline is the composition of that earnings growth.
The first half of the year was a challenging environment for a lot of fixed income markets, especially higher-quality markets. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) seemingly unlikely to lower interest rates until after the summer months (at the earliest), the “higher for longer” narrative has kept a lid on any sort of bond market rally. While falling interest rates help provide price appreciation in this higher-for-longer environment, fixed income investors are likely better served by focusing on income opportunities, which has been the traditional goal of fixed income investors. Investors can best navigate the latecycle economic environment by adding high-quality bonds, offering attractive risk-adjusted returns, and lowering overall portfolio volatility. Consider moving away from cash, with the Fed likely to cut rates in the second half.
Sharp shifts in interest rate expectations have been a hallmark of the bond market over the last few years, but with volatility comes opportunity, and investors should consider:
The LPL Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) determines the firm’s investment outlook and asset allocation that helps define LPL Research’s investment models and overall strategic and tactical investment thinking and guidance. The committee is chaired by the chief investment officer and includes investment specialists from multiple investment disciplines and areas of focus. The STAAC meets weekly to foster a close monitoring of all global economic and capital markets conditions to ensure that all the latest information is being digested and incorporated into its investment thought.
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Every year as the summer months draw near their end, LPL Financial hosts its annual conference for financial advisors. While the conference is an excellent opportunity for advisors to expand upon professional interests, discover ways to enhance their impact on clients, and connect with industry experts — learning is a two-way street. At this year’s big event with nearly 9,000 attendees in sunny San Diego, the LPL Research team had the unique opportunity to connect with many of these advisors in person to get their perspectives on the capital markets. Below are some of the frequently asked questions from the road.
The VIX spike and subsequent collapse. After a historic 65 reading on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of implied volatility for the S&P 500, just a week before the conference, combined with an upcoming presidential election, we would have expected more jittery advisors. However, we noted just the opposite. In fact, far fewer discussions than expected were around the recent spike in the VIX and the election, reflecting the quick return to calm by the VIX, which is well below its long-term average of 19–20, and down a remarkable 50 points in two weeks. Commonly referred to as the “fear gauge,” a rising VIX is associated with increased fear and uncertainty in the marketplace and falling stock prices, and vice versa for a declining VIX. An underwhelming July employment report and the unwinding of the yen carry trade created a storm of volatility earlier this month (more on the carry trade below). The VIX jumped to as high as 65.73 on August 5, marking its highest intraday reading since March 2020. Fear has dissipated and stocks have subsequently rebounded as economic data improved and currency markets stabilized. Technically, the VIX has pulled back through the April highs and appears poised to retest support near its 200-day moving average (dma). A break below this level would add to the evidence of the market shifting back toward a risk-on backdrop.
In his recent speech, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell focused on the fragilities of the labor market and is preparing markets for the new phase for policy. “The time has come for policy to adjust.” A soft landing looks achievable, barring any shocks. Disinflation while preserving labor market strength is only possible with anchored inflation expectations, so an independent and credible central bank is key. One of the best concepts in the speech for investors to understand is the current data shows an evolving macro landscape. The jury is still out on if the Fed can successfully manage the risks to both sides of their dual mandate.
Last summer, Jerome Powell ended his Jackson Hole speech with an intimidating tone — this tone was almost gone at this year’s symposium. He pivoted his policy inclinations from “We will keep at it until the job is done” to a more calming promise that “The time has come for policy to adjust.”
This clarity is just what the markets wanted. As consumer prices are no longer rising at breakneck speed, the Fed can move on to the other part of its dual mandate for full employment.
What we learned from Jackson Hole is the Fed is interested in preparing markets for the committee to start cutting rates at the September 18 meeting and to start a measured process of cutting throughout the rest of this year and into next.
In December 2023, Vladimir Putin declared that the 2024 BRICS Summit, hosted by Russia, would be focused on establishing a “fair world order” based on shared principles. At the core of Putin’s goals for stronger BRICS economic integration is a longstanding and overriding objective to provide a viable alternative to the West’s global hegemony in nearly all facets of political, military, economic, financial, and security affairs.
Creating a common currency designed to curtail — and displace – the dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency has been a central theme when the BRICS Summit was formalized in 2009 with initial founding membership of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Today, the dollar remains the commanding currency in global transactions, involved in an overwhelming number of exchanges, although a growing number of dealings involve the euro.
Putin has recently called for BRICS to establish a “safer and harmonious world” with a goal towards creating its own parliament.
Today, BRICS as an intergovernmental organization is comprised of Russia, China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia, due to join formally in January 2024, has not yet declared its official membership, while rumors persist that North Korea is seeking affiliation. Argentina was also invited to join, although newly elected President Javier Milei has made it clear the nation will not be joining in the near-term.
Second quarter earnings season is in the books, and it was a good one. S&P 500 companies collectively grew earnings at a double-digit pace for the first time in three years. Companies beat estimates at a solid 79% clip. Guidance from company CEOs and CFOs was relatively upbeat. And although some were a bit disappointed by big technology results based on stock reactions, the problem was high expectations more than anything else.
Second quarter numbers were quite good and generally in line with LPL Research’s expectations. In our earnings preview on July 1, we called for double-digit earnings growth and we got it — S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) grew nearly 12% in the quarter, or over 13% excluding a $9.1 billion write-down of media assets by Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD). Profit margins expanded quarter over quarter by a not insignificant 0.4%, indicating companies did a good job controlling costs.
Source: LPL Research, FactSet 09/05/24
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Estimates may not develop as predicted.
With the first presidential debate behind us, it’s safe to say election season is in full swing. While last week’s debate was light on economic policies, the future of tax policy (along with potential efforts to arrest elevated federal deficits) could have broad implications for the municipal (muni) market — some good, some not so good. With the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) set to sunset in 2025, the election will go a long way in determining the future of tax policy in the U.S. And for muni securities and their unique tax-exemption characteristics, the election will go a long way in determining future demand for the asset class. But with the Federal Reserve (Fed) embarking on a rate cutting cycle likely starting this week, the next few months could be the last “best time” to buy munis, regardless of changes to tax policy.
While there are still several months until the election is decided, the expectation is that regardless of who ultimately becomes our 47th president, the biggest loser could be the fiscal deficit. Per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. government is expected to run sizable deficits over the next decade — to the tune of 5% – 7% of gross domestic product (GDP) each year. According to the CBO, the deficit increases significantly in relation to GDP over the next 30 years, reaching 8.5% of GDP in 2054. That growth results from rising interest costs and large and sustained primary deficits. CBO deficit projections assume the personal tax cuts within the TCJA will expire at the end of 2025, so deficits are likely to be even higher assuming either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will extend most, if not all, of the tax cuts. If tax cuts are fully extended, budget deficits are expected to be in the 7%–8% range of GDP over the next decade. Deficits will remain elevated regardless of who is in the White House in 2025, even without new spending or tax cuts due to higher spending on Medicare and Social Security plus the (growing) interest expense on the (growing) debt pile.
Of course, last week’s headliner was Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by a half percent on Wednesday, September 18, the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. The Fed “pause” ended at 423 days and now stands as the second-longest on record, while the 26% gain for the S&P 500 during the pause (7/27/23–9/18/24) ranks first. Here we share some thoughts on the Fed’s move last week and some potential market implications of not only Fed policy but also fiscal policy post-election.
Golfers may appreciate this mantra as representing the importance of the final putt that goes in the hole as being the most important thing, more so than a well-struck first shot off the tee. We think this analogy works for the Fed here. While the 0.25% vs. 0.50% debate was all the rage, what matters most is how much Powell and company cut for the entire cycle and how lower rates affect the economy. Whether the cycle starts with a quarter or half-point cut isn’t as important given the Fed will almost certainly have to cut much more than that this cycle. (For those who appreciate NASCAR more than golf, call it a pit stop on the way to the more important finish line.)
We don’t know how much the Fed will end up cutting, but if they are able to engineer a soft landing — and last week’s rally sure suggests the market thinks that’s what we’ll get — then perhaps they end up stopping before they get to 3% (the upper bound now sits at 5%, down from 5.5%). The Fed and most analysts think the neutral rate is around 3%, or potentially a bit higher. Either way, based on the 1995 experience, that sets up a favorable environment for stock investors. After the initial cut in July 1995, the S&P 500 rallied 18.7% over the next 12 months.
When it comes to investing, gold may be the antithesis of artificial intelligence (AI). The precious metal has acted as a store of value for thousands of years with zero technological innovation — gold is discovered, not developed. Gold is also a real tangible asset and can act as a potential hedge against inflation or a safe haven during times of crisis. Given these properties and the backdrop of a risk-on-record-setting equity market, many investors are wondering what’s behind the paradoxical price action of gold’s rally to new highs and how the yellow metal has matched the momentum in AI stocks over the last several months (gold and the equal-weight Magnificent Seven Index are both up around 20% since March). Herein we discuss the key drivers of gold and why this rally is no flash in the pan.
After consolidating sideways for several years, spot gold prices finally reached record highs in March. The rally continued into the summer months as expectations for a monetary policy pivot from the Federal Reserve (Fed) firmed. Interest rates and the dollar subsequently declined as the market began to price in higher probabilities for rate cuts. This was an expected response from gold, as lower U.S. interest rates and a weaker dollar increased the appeal of non-yielding bullion.
Perhaps more surprising is the lack of demand for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Until recently, ETF holdings of gold had inexplicably decoupled from the precious metal over the last two years. However, with gold breaking out to new highs and creating a lot of headlines along the way, fear of missing out appears to be kicking in. Buyers have returned to chase this rally as gold ETF holdings recently reported seven straight weeks of positive inflows, marking the longest inflow streak since March 2022. History suggests this trend could continue as peaks in gold ETF holdings tend to occur after peaks in gold prices.
On October 12, 2022, there were very few comments suggesting that a new bull market was in thethroes of being born as the S&P 500 opened at 3,590.83 and closed at 3,577.03.
After all, inflation was still running hot even though the Federal Reserve (Fed) began its rate-hiking campaign on March 16, 2022, by raising rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) and moving to a 50-basispoint hike on May 5, 2022, as it tried to quell inflationary pressures. By mid-June, a series of 75- basis-point hikes were introduced as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked in June at 9.1%.
The October 13 rally that ended the bear market at a low of 3,577.03 began with the S&P 500 selling off in the morning only to rally dramatically higher into the market close. The CPI report earlier in the day showed headline inflation at 8.2% on a year-over-year basis, but Core CPI ─ not including food and fuel prices ─ beat the consensus estimate at 6.6%. The S&P 500 closed at 3,669.91 and the bull market had commenced.
The explanations for the market reversal that day traversed from excessive short covering to the deep pessimism embedded in the market psyche that allowed investors and traders alike to witness a modicum of improvement in the CPI report.
The bar for third quarter earnings is low, with analysts currently expecting only about a 3% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS). That low bar and a supportive economic environment points to potential upside. However, stocks may already be pricing in solid results, with the S&P 500 up more than 7% since the third quarter began on July 1. Here we preview earnings season and discuss some of the key drivers of earnings growth in the year ahead.
The S&P 500 consensus earnings growth number of 3% for the third quarter is not something to write home about, especially after double-digit earnings growth in the second quarter. The soft number is partly due to a tougher comparison. In Q2 2024, earnings had an easier comparison with a 3.3% drop in earnings in the prior-year quarter (Q2 2023 vs. Q2 2022). For the third quarter now being reported, the comparison gets tougher as earnings growth in Q3 2023 was over 5% (vs. Q2 2022).
The biggest drags on earnings this quarter are likely to come from the energy and industrials sectors, while the biggest contributions are expected to be from technology, communication services, and financials. The largest, technology-oriented companies — the so-called Magnificent Seven (Mag 7) — will again drive a big chunk of overall earnings growth even as their growth has slowed (more on that below).
Stocks have done so well this year that it’s fair to say market participants haven’t feared much. But just because risks haven’t affected markets lately doesn’t mean they won’t in the future. In that “spirit,” as Halloween approaches, we discuss what scares us about the economy and financial markets.
For U.S. consumers, it’s the best of times and the worst of times. It’s no surprise that upper-income households supported consumer spending in recent periods. And it’s also no surprise that firms like credit card lender Capital One (COF) want to focus on the wealthier consumer, knowing those consumers weather downturns better.
When people talk about a “resilient consumer,” what they are really talking about is upper-income households. To borrow from Charles Dickens, the current macro landscape is the best of times and simultaneously the worst of times.
So, it behooves investors to carefully track the health of wealthier consumers, and they just got a troubling update from the New York Federal Reserve (Fed). What scares us this Halloween season is the potential stress on the wealthier cohort as more upper-income households reported they will most likely be unable to make their minimum debt payment — now at the highest percentage since mid-2014 when the economy was feeling the aftereffects of the Global Financial Crisis.
After last week's whirlwind of national events, and as we strive as Americans to navigate the days ahead, this week let’s turn our focus to what is within our control—with some helpful financial literacy tips in the articles below, curated from recent headlines.
Here's an empowering reality: though large-scale political and economic events of the day may feel unpredictable and unmanageable, it’s the personal decisions YOU make every day that truly shape your life and future—far more directly than any election outcome. And just as a voter exercises their power at the ballot box, you can exercise profound control over your financial destiny through your intentional choices each day.
So, this week, arm yourself with this knowledge and then show up to vote for yourself, for the future you create. These articles can help get you started. Together we can continue to find areas where you could make more of an immediate and/or lasting impact for your family and the world. Enjoy and share!
Thank you,
Paul Celentano
As we approach Thanksgiving, the thought of discussing money matters with our loved ones can stir up all kinds of emotions. Those conversations can feel as tricky as trying to carve the perfect turkey—so delicate!
But here's a little food for thought: being real and open about financial topics with your family and friends could actually strengthen your bonds in ways you might not expect. Sure, it might be tempting to dodge the money chat and stick to lighter topics like the weather or holiday recipes. However, embracing these conversations can lead to a deeper understanding and connection with those you care about. It's a chance to share values, learn from each other's experiences, and support one another across the generational divide.
If you need more specific guidance on how to kickstart these conversations or navigate other tricky topics this holiday season, don't hesitate to reach out. Together, we can make this Thanksgiving one filled with unforgettable memories and stronger connections that last many lifetimes.
Enjoy the articles below, curated for you from the financial world this week. And please have a safe and happy Thanksgiving!
Thank you,
Paul Celentano
As December rolls forward, it’s natural to reflect on another year almost in the books. This time of year invites introspection, offering us a moment to pause, look back at where we've been, and prepare for where we’re headed. It’s an interval brimming with potential and an opportune moment to reflect on one of the most crucial aspects of financial planning and investment—timing.
In our financial endeavors and personal journeys, timing often emerges as the invisible hand that guides success. Just as the right decision made at the right moment can accelerate growth, a mistimed move can create undesirable challenges. As we prepare to bid farewell to 2024 and usher in a promising new year, understanding the nuances of timing can empower you to seize opportunities and navigate potential pitfalls with perspicacious agility.
Timing isn’t just a technical skill; it's an art form that can shape the trajectory of our lives in profound ways. As we stand on the brink of 2025, it’s a propitious moment to recalibrate your goals and strategies. How can you time your financial decisions to align with potential opportunities and personal milestones? How can you leverage the insights gained from 2024 to anticipate the trends and shifts of the upcoming year?
Here’s to closing 2024 with wisdom and welcoming 2025 with enthusiasm and strategic foresight!
Thank you,
Paul Celentano
The beginning of a new year always brings a fresh sense of optimism and opportunity. Markets are abuzz with predictions, tech innovations are unfolding, and potential changes in economic policy are on the horizon. While it's easy to get caught up in the excitement and noise, it's important to remain anchored to the financial and investment strategies we've carefully crafted together.
This year, be particularly mindful of the dangers of FOMO—the fear of missing out—which can lead to impulsive decisions, resulting in departures from the thoughtful long-term strategies we've established. Remember, financial success is a marathon, not a sprint. History clearly shows that reacting to every market fluctuation is an unlikely recipe for ultimate success.
Our aim is to build a resilient financial roadmap that withstands the test of time, which means maintaining a disciplined, long-term perspective, even when short-term trends tempt you to think otherwise. Rest assured, I'm here to guide you, with sound advice grounded in careful analysis and a deep understanding of your unique circumstances.
As well, I hope you’ll take the time to read the below articles, which are packed full of insightful perspectives and ideas. Please share them with family and friends who you think could also benefit from their valuable contents.
My best wishes for a wonderful year ahead!
Since the decisions you make today shape the financial well-being of tomorrow, I invite you to explore a concept that extends beyond numbers and spreadsheets: the courage to be disliked.
One key aspect of this concept is the separation of tasks. Clearly delineating what is within your control alleviates the pressure of external expectations, freeing you to prioritize decisions that align with your unique goals, rather than succumbing to societal norms or peer pressure.
Your relationships also play a crucial role in how you manage finances. Embracing the courage to be disliked encourages building those based on mutual respect and trust, rather than seeking approval. This shift allows you to engage in open discussions about financial strategies without the paralyzing fear of judgment.
Moreover, a key tenet of this philosophy is focusing on teleology—our aspirations and goals—rather than etiology—our past. While understanding where you’ve come from is important, success depends on where you’re headed. Concentrating on the future will empower you to make purposeful decisions that propel you forward, rather than being anchored by past financial mistakes or limitations.
Let's work together to cultivate the courage to make bold financial decisions—with the confidence that comes from being true to yourself and your own idiosyncratic life journey.
Have you ever wondered why some people prioritize saving every penny, while others thrive on spending? Or why financial discussions can sometimes become tense between friends, partners, or family members? The lens we each use to view money—our "money personality"—plays a significant role in how we manage finances and interact with others.
Identifying your money personality will increase your self-awareness, enhancing your approach to financial planning by allowing you to play to your strengths while also addressing potential challenges. It will also open the door to empathy and appreciation for the diverse money personalities of those close to you.
These articles will help you discover your money personality, while offering practical tips on how to use this knowledge to build a more harmonious relationship with your finances. By understanding the dynamics of how different money personalities interact, you can navigate financial conversations with greater confidence and mutual respect. Please share them with anyone who could benefit from their valuable contents.
Understanding your financial behavior, alongside that of others, holds the key to not just improving your personal finances but creating a more understanding and supportive financial environment for you and your loved ones.
As always, I’m here to help with any questions or concerns about your financial plan, so please reach out with whatever’s on your mind.
As Presidents Day approaches, this week we’re reminded not only of the influence of great leaders who came before us, but also of the potential to inspire a legacy within our own families.
This is the perfect moment to sow seeds of financial wisdom and foresight in our children. By guiding them toward strong financial habits and modeling a life well-lived, we can empower future generations to transform life's challenges into opportunities for growth.
Understanding what’s happening in the world can help you make more informed daily financial decisions. However, being well-informed is half the battle. I’m here as well as a resource for you if you have questions or concerns. And please, read and share these articles with anyone you believe could benefit.
As we honor the leaders of the past, let's also take this opportunity to lead our own families toward a future filled with prosperity, wisdom, and lasting success.
Thank you,
Paul Celentano
The imposition of tariffs by the United States this week has understandably sparked volatility in the markets.
It's in the face of such challenges that our diversified, strategically balanced, long-term approach demonstrate their true value. Our goal has always been to withstand market ups and downs, minimizing exposure to individual market events and maximizing potential returns through diversified investments across various asset classes.
One essential concept in navigating such circumstances is the importance of avoiding financial inertia. In prosperous times, this tendency may lead to missed opportunities for diversification or rebalancing. Conversely, during downturns, failing to act might result in unwisely holding onto underperforming assets or making reactive decisions driven by fear.
By emphasizing the importance of ongoing evaluation and dynamic adjustments to your portfolio, our proactive management involves regular reviews and strategic shifts to align with current market conditions, helping to avoid these pitfalls.
While market reactions to tariffs may introduce short-term volatility, maintaining focus on your long-term financial goals remains paramount. Rest assured, I am closely monitoring these developments and am prepared to implement strategic adjustments as necessary to better position your portfolio's performance.
In times of uncertainty, the wisdom of Stoicism offers valuable insights—not just for our finances but also for our overall wellbeing.
The core tenet of Stoicism is distinguishing between what we can’t control, such as market fluctuations, interest rates, or economic downturns, and what we can—how we respond. Maintaining a disciplined approach to saving and investing by avoiding reactive decisions based on fear or avarice is the best way to manage and grow the resources at your disposal.
Another Stoic principle is the practice of mindful simplicity. Focusing on the essentials of your wellbeing by avoiding unnecessary investment products and spending will lead to mental clarity and better financial health in the long run.
A third Stoic-based suggestion is the importance of cultivating contentment. For the Stoics, true wealth is about leading a fulfilled life. Therefore, be sure to regularly reflect upon what truly matters to you, ensuring that your financial decisions align with your life’s purpose.
Remember: while global events like tariffs and geopolitical tensions are beyond our control, how we respond to them is not. Stoicism teaches us to accept our current reality without despair, focusing instead on how best to navigate whatever challenges we encounter.
With summer upon us, many are ready for a well-deserved break or vacation. As you recharge, this season can also be a good time to reflect on your broader financial picture—especially how others’ choices are affecting your own.
We often view our financial status as a series of purely personal decisions—what to save, how to invest, when to spend. But these decisions rarely happen in a vacuum. Whether it’s a family member’s needs, a business partner’s influence, or shared living arrangements, the choices of others in our lives have a real impact. Some helpful tips are found in the articles below. As summer brings families together, we’re more aware than ever how interconnected our financial decisions can be.
While we can’t control every action of those around us, it’s beneficial to prepare and communicate. If you want to discuss how others’ decisions are affecting your finances—or simply talk about some of the challenges you’re facing—let’s connect. I’m here to help you make the most of your summer and develop a strategy for what’s ahead.
Thank you,
Paul Celentano
A significant new bill was just signed into law, locking in the 2017 tax cuts and introducing new deductions across its 900+ pages. While a few new tax breaks could fatten your refund next spring, there are also some belt-tightening measures for federal healthcare, food-aid, and student loan programs that could impact millions—so don’t tune out.
What does this mean for you? In the short term, your paycheck probably won’t shrink, and you might notice a little extra thanks to extended tax rates. But with cuts to some benefits programs, it’s more important than ever to contribute to a safety net, so keep growing your emergency fund and investing for your future. With steady money habits, you’re less vulnerable to policy swings—Congress might cast the votes, but you steer your own financial direction.
I’ve included helpful explainers and news updates below. If you have any questions, let’s talk. The world keeps changing, but remember, you’re not navigating it alone and your financial future remains firmly in your hands.
Thank you,
Paul Celentano
As headlines shift away from the recent flooding in Texas and elsewhere, the real work for many families is just beginning. Recovery after a tragedy often happens in phases: there’s the immediate response, and then there’s the longer, quieter rebuild. While initial support often quickly fades, the true progress comes from patience and steady effort over time.
Rebuilding—whether it’s after a natural disaster, a financial setback, or a major life event—always starts with a first step, however small. It’s learning to honor the memories of the past while embracing new beginnings and celebrating the progress you make along the way. The process can feel slow, but remember, this is where meaningful change and growth take root.
If you’re facing a period of rebuilding—be it tackling debt, navigating family finances, or seeking a fresh start in your community—know I’m here to help guide you. Taking that first step is hard, but together, we can lay the groundwork for a stronger future.
Enjoy these articles and reach out if I can be of assistance.
Thank you,
Paul Celentano
In the world of finance and investing, we often talk about numbers, trends, and strategies. But equally important to long-term success is a quality that doesn’t appear on balance sheets: humility. Recognizing what we know and—perhaps more importantly—what we don’t is essential to making sound financial decisions.
It is tempting to believe AI will provide clear and reliable answers. While these technologies hold significant promise, they can also produce “hallucinations”—outputs that appear confident and authoritative while being factually incorrect.
This dynamic mirrors an important principle in financial planning: when we assume certainty where none exists, we expose ourselves to risks we may not fully appreciate. Admitting uncertainty is not a weakness but a strength—it creates room for caution, curiosity, and collaboration.
My role is not only to provide guidance based on experience and evidence but also to serve as a partner in navigating complexity. Financial success is not a single transaction or one-time plan—it is an evolving process built on ongoing communication and mutual trust.
By working together consistently, we can combine insights, ask hard questions, and avoid common temptations, giving you the best chance to achieve sustainable, long-term results.
A difficult truth in life is that if we are never wrong, we probably aren’t trying hard enough. There is comfort in sticking with what we know and in reinforcing our assumptions rather than questioning them. Psychologists call this confirmation bias: the inclination to seek out evidence that tells us we’re right and to avoid what might suggest otherwise.
However, markets are unpredictable by nature. Economic conditions shift, new opportunities arise, and risks evolve. A willingness to ask, “What if I’m wrong?” is a safeguard, not an embarrassment. It’s a mindset that protects your assets, positioning you for long-term growth.
And while saving and strategizing are essential, immiserating yourself and loved ones in favor of an always uncertain future is not the path to abundance. In fact, the act of giving—whether to family, causes you care about, or your community—not only enriches others but brings a profound sense of prosperity and fulfillment.
I encourage you to lean into curiosity, to be open to revisiting assumptions, even uncomfortable ones, and to keep in mind that wealth is not measured only by numbers. It’s measured by the security it provides, the opportunities it allows, and the generosity it enables.
Thank you, as always, for your trust in me. I consider it a privilege to help you chart a path that honors both your future security and your present happiness.
For decades, U.S. Treasury bonds were regarded as among the safest of investments—so reliable, in fact, that they came to be viewed as the foundation of the global financial system.
But today we are facing an environment where those old assumptions may no longer hold true. With U.S. debt growing at an accelerating pace, confidence in Treasuries is being tested in ways we have not seen for generations. What was once considered unquestionably secure is now subject to doubt, challenging the traditional idea that there are permanent “safe havens” in investing.
This shift carries a powerful reminder: the past cannot always serve as a dependable guide to the future. The strategies that felt comfortable for decades may no longer provide the same level of protection or opportunity.
That is why professional guidance is more important than ever. My role as your advisor is to help you navigate these changes with clear-eyed analysis and strategies based not only on legacy assumptions, but on today’s realities—and tomorrow’s challenges. By reassessing risks, identifying new opportunities, and adjusting portfolios with discipline and foresight, we can strive to preserve and grow your wealth even in uncertain times.
If you’d like to discuss how these shifting dynamics could affect you, please don’t hesitate to reach out. It is exactly during periods like this that a thoughtful, flexible approach makes all the difference.