The Objective Advisor

As we approach Thanksgiving, the thought of discussing money matters with our loved ones can stir up all kinds of emotions. Those conversations can feel as tricky as trying to carve the perfect turkey—so delicate!

But here's a little food for thought: being real and open about financial topics with your family and friends could actually strengthen your bonds in ways you might not expect. Sure, it might be tempting to dodge the money chat and stick to lighter topics like the weather or holiday recipes. However, embracing these conversations can lead to a deeper understanding and connection with those you care about. It's a chance to share values, learn from each other's experiences, and support one another across the generational divide.

Stocks have done so well this year that it’s fair to say market participants haven’t feared much. But just because risks haven’t affected markets lately doesn’t mean they won’t in the future. In that “spirit,” as Halloween approaches, we discuss what scares us about the economy and financial markets.

The bar for third quarter earnings is low, with analysts currently expecting only about a 3% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS). That low bar and a supportive economic environment points to potential upside. However, stocks may already be pricing in solid results, with the S&P 500 up more than 7% since the third quarter began on July 1. Here we preview earnings season and discuss some of the key drivers of earnings growth in the year ahead.

On October 12, 2022, there were very few comments suggesting that a new bull market was in thethroes of being born as the S&P 500 opened at 3,590.83 and closed at 3,577.03.

After all, inflation was still running hot even though the Federal Reserve (Fed) began its rate-hiking campaign on March 16, 2022, by raising rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) and moving to a 50-basispoint hike on May 5, 2022, as it tried to quell inflationary pressures. By mid-June, a series of 75- basis-point hikes were introduced as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked in June at 9.1%.

When it comes to investing, gold may be the antithesis of artificial intelligence (AI). The precious metal has acted as a store of value for thousands of years with zero technological innovation — gold is discovered, not developed. Gold is also a real tangible asset and can act as a potential hedge against inflation or a safe haven during times of crisis. Given these properties and the backdrop of a risk-on-record-setting equity market, many investors are wondering what’s behind the paradoxical price action of gold’s rally to new highs and how the yellow metal has matched the momentum in AI stocks over the last several months (gold and the equal-weight Magnificent Seven Index are both up around 20% since March). Herein we discuss the key drivers of gold and why this rally is no flash in the pan.

Of course, last week’s headliner was Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by a half percent on Wednesday, September 18, the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. The Fed “pause” ended at 423 days and now stands as the second-longest on record, while the 26% gain for the S&P 500 during the pause (7/27/23–9/18/24) ranks first. Here we share some thoughts on the Fed’s move last week and some potential market implications of not only Fed policy but also fiscal policy post-election.

With the first presidential debate behind us, it’s safe to say election season is in full swing. While last week’s debate was light on economic policies, the future of tax policy (along with potential efforts to arrest elevated federal deficits) could have broad implications for the municipal (muni) market — some good, some not so good. With the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) set to sunset in 2025, the election will go a long way in determining the future of tax policy in the U.S. And for muni securities and their unique tax-exemption characteristics, the election will go a long way in determining future demand for the asset class. But with the Federal Reserve (Fed) embarking on a rate cutting cycle likely starting this week, the next few months could be the last “best time” to buy munis, regardless of changes to tax policy.

In December 2023, Vladimir Putin declared that the 2024 BRICS Summit, hosted by Russia, would be focused on establishing a “fair world order” based on shared principles. At the core of Putin’s goals for stronger BRICS economic integration is a longstanding and overriding objective to provide a viable alternative to the West’s global hegemony in nearly all facets of political, military, economic, financial, and security affairs.

When Fortune magazine asked an AI model to sum up Wall Street’s 2026 outlook in a single word, the result was the word “precarious.” It’s an interesting choice—and not entirely wrong. With markets weighing shifting interest rates, inflation trends, talk of an AI bubble and global realignments, “precarious” certainly could capture the moment. Yet while some analysts accept that word, you have the opportunity to choose your own.

In his recent speech, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell focused on the fragilities of the labor market and is preparing markets for the new phase for policy. “The time has come for policy to adjust.” A soft landing looks achievable, barring any shocks. Disinflation while preserving labor market strength is only possible with anchored inflation expectations, so an independent and credible central bank is key. One of the best concepts in the speech for investors to understand is the current data shows an evolving macro landscape. The jury is still out on if the Fed can successfully manage the risks to both sides of their dual mandate.

Second quarter earnings season is in the books, and it was a good one. S&P 500 companies collectively grew earnings at a double-digit pace for the first time in three years. Companies beat estimates at a solid 79% clip. Guidance from company CEOs and CFOs was relatively upbeat. And although some were a bit disappointed by big technology results based on stock reactions, the problem was high expectations more than anything else.

Every year as the summer months draw near their end, LPL Financial hosts its annual conference for financial advisors. While the conference is an excellent opportunity for advisors to expand upon professional interests, discover ways to enhance their impact on clients, and connect with industry experts — learning is a two-way street. At this year’s big event with nearly 9,000 attendees in sunny San Diego, the LPL Research team had the unique opportunity to connect with many of these advisors in person to get their perspectives on the capital markets. Below are some of the frequently asked questions from the road.

The LPL Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) determines the firm’s investment outlook and asset allocation that helps define LPL Research’s investment models and overall strategic and tactical investment thinking and guidance. The committee is chaired by the chief investment officer and includes investment specialists from multiple investment disciplines and areas of focus. The STAAC meets weekly to foster a close monitoring of all global economic and capital markets conditions to ensure that all the latest information is being digested and incorporated into its investment thought.

The first half of the year was a challenging environment for a lot of fixed income markets, especially higher-quality markets. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) seemingly unlikely to lower interest rates until after the summer months (at the earliest), the “higher for longer” narrative has kept a lid on any sort of bond market rally. While falling interest rates help provide price appreciation in this higher-for-longer environment, fixed income investors are likely better served by focusing on income opportunities, which has been the traditional goal of fixed income investors. Investors can best navigate the latecycle economic environment by adding high-quality bonds, offering attractive risk-adjusted returns, and lowering overall portfolio volatility. Consider moving away from cash, with the Fed likely to cut rates in the second half.

With stock valuations elevated after such a strong first half, earnings growth will be key to holding, or potentially building on these gains. LPL Research believes stocks have gotten a bit over their skis, but earnings season may not be the catalyst for a pullback in the near term given all signs point to another solid earnings season and stocks have mostly performed well during the peak weeks of reporting season in recent years. We may not get an increase in second-half estimates over the next couple of months — that's a lot to ask — but we should get a few points of upside and double-digit earnings growth for the second quarter on the back of technology strength.

Developments in artificial intelligence may be the antidote for an aging population, but it takes time for these advancements to work themselves into the fabric of our nation’s businesses. The impact of new developments can persist in markets, so investors need to carefully discern what could be different this time around.

The LPL Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) determines the firm’s investment outlook and asset allocation that helps define LPL Research’s investment models and overall strategic and tactical investment thinking and guidance. The committee is chaired by the chief investment officer and includes investment specialists from multiple investment disciplines and areas of focus. The STAAC meets weekly to foster a close monitoring of all global economic and capital markets conditions to ensure that all the latest information is being digested and incorporated into its investment thought.

Jeffrey Roach, PhD, Chief Economist
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist

When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets and the economy had legs. So, the variety of the data produced the narrative that business activity in the New Year would grow on an annual basis but experience some bumps in the first half of the year. Now, enter the revisions.

Navigating finances can feel a bit like a winter sport—fast, unpredictable, and occasionally breathtaking. And this week has seen plenty of motion, few places to pause, and moments that naturally test our balance. The constant activity and notifications can sometimes feel too noisy, but the 2026 Winter Olympic Games offer a useful reminder: your most important progress always comes back to fundamentals.

The athletes who perform best aren’t chasing chaos or trying to be the best in everything. They’re focused on discipline, consistency, and pacing, especially amid unpredictable (and cold!) conditions. The takeaway: How you move through your challenges matter.

Earlier this week, the groundhog saw his shadow — six more weeks of winter, or so tradition says. It’s a familiar ritual that always seems to prompt a moment of reflection: how easily life can settle into patterns that feel repetitive. Same season. Same story. Same headlines. And yet within those routines, there’s always an opportunity to see change more clearly — and to decide how we’ll respond to it.

Habits, after all, are what keep us moving forward. They create the structure that allows for progress, while consistency turns intention into lasting results. But even the best habits deserve an occasional check in. In a world that prizes efficiency, taking time to step back, assess, and recalibrate can reveal new ways to strengthen both purpose and performance.

Many of us spend decades looking forward to retirement—the day when we no longer have to work. Yet at the same time, work is often the foundation of a meaningful life. It gives structure to our days, opportunities to contribute, social connection, and a sense that we are needed.

This tension is not just philosophical. Research has consistently shown a significant statistical correlation between men retiring and an increased risk of early death. To be clear, retirement itself is not the cause—but the sudden loss of purpose, routine, and identity that can accompany it matters deeply. When meaningful engagement disappears, health and well-being often follow.

When we talk about the future, the focus usually lands on numbers: savings targets, performance reports, next steps. Those matter, of course, but they aren’t the ultimate point.

Part of the purpose of preparing for what’s ahead is to enjoy future freedom—stepping back from the noise and finding a sense of calm and direction that feels right to you. Every week brings new developments—from evolving conflicts to policy shifts and economic updates that influence how we envision the road ahead. The headlines may change quickly, but your focus and consistency are what drive lasting progress.

If it seems like every week brings a new plot twist — geopolitical and domestic conflicts, emerging tech, policy changes — and then the food pyramid gets flipped! You’re not imagining it: The world is moving quickly and the rate of change is accelerating. Still, that’s not a reason for worry; it’s a cue to stay calm and focus on what holds steady beneath the noise.

Among all the forecasts, one truth stands out: nobody knows exactly what’s coming. That’s not a flaw in the system—it’s the nature of it. The good news is that thoughtful, consistent habits have a way of working through the ups and downs. Markets adjust. Perspective is what’s important. History shows that patience and persistence tend to win out over time.

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist

A positive January has historically been a bullish sign for stocks. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”, first discovered this seasonal pattern back in 1972, which he called the January Barometer and coined its popular tagline of ‘As goes January, so goes this year.’ Here, we assess the likelihood that this popular stock market adage delivers more gains for investors this year. The weight of the evidence leans toward yes, as we explain.

After last week's whirlwind of national events, and as we strive as Americans to navigate the days ahead, this week let’s turn our focus to what is within our control—with some helpful financial literacy tips in the articles below, curated from recent headlines.

Here's an empowering reality: though large-scale political and economic events of the day may feel unpredictable and unmanageable, it’s the personal decisions YOU make every day that truly shape your life and future—far more directly than any election outcome. And just as a voter exercises their power at the ballot box, you can exercise profound control over your financial destiny through your intentional choices each day.

As December rolls forward, it’s natural to reflect on another year almost in the books. This time of year invites introspection, offering us a moment to pause, look back at where we've been, and prepare for where we’re headed. It’s an interval brimming with potential and an opportune moment to reflect on one of the most crucial aspects of financial planning and investment—timing.

In our financial endeavors and personal journeys, timing often emerges as the invisible hand that guides success. Just as the right decision made at the right moment can accelerate growth, a mistimed move can create undesirable challenges. As we prepare to bid farewell to 2024 and usher in a promising new year, understanding the nuances of timing can empower you to seize opportunities and navigate potential pitfalls with perspicacious agility.

The beginning of a new year always brings a fresh sense of optimism and opportunity. Markets are abuzz with predictions, tech innovations are unfolding, and potential changes in economic policy are on the horizon. While it's easy to get caught up in the excitement and noise, it's important to remain anchored to the financial and investment strategies we've carefully crafted together.

This year, be particularly mindful of the dangers of FOMO—the fear of missing out—which can lead to impulsive decisions, resulting in departures from the thoughtful long-term strategies we've established. Remember, financial success is a marathon, not a sprint. History clearly shows that reacting to every market fluctuation is an unlikely recipe for ultimate success.

Since the decisions you make today shape the financial well-being of tomorrow, I invite you to explore a concept that extends beyond numbers and spreadsheets: the courage to be disliked.

One key aspect of this concept is the separation of tasks. Clearly delineating what is within your control alleviates the pressure of external expectations, freeing you to prioritize decisions that align with your unique goals, rather than succumbing to societal norms or peer pressure.

Have you ever wondered why some people prioritize saving every penny, while others thrive on spending? Or why financial discussions can sometimes become tense between friends, partners, or family members? The lens we each use to view money—our "money personality"—plays a significant role in how we manage finances and interact with others.

Identifying your money personality will increase your self-awareness, enhancing your approach to financial planning by allowing you to play to your strengths while also addressing potential challenges. It will also open the door to empathy and appreciation for the diverse money personalities of those close to you.

As Presidents Day approaches, this week we’re reminded not only of the influence of great leaders who came before us, but also of the potential to inspire a legacy within our own families.

This is the perfect moment to sow seeds of financial wisdom and foresight in our children. By guiding them toward strong financial habits and modeling a life well-lived, we can empower future generations to transform life's challenges into opportunities for growth.

The imposition of tariffs by the United States this week has understandably sparked volatility in the markets.

It's in the face of such challenges that our diversified, strategically balanced, long-term approach demonstrate their true value. Our goal has always been to withstand market ups and downs, minimizing exposure to individual market events and maximizing potential returns through diversified investments across various asset classes.

In times of uncertainty, the wisdom of Stoicism offers valuable insights—not just for our finances but also for our overall wellbeing.

The core tenet of Stoicism is distinguishing between what we can’t control, such as market fluctuations, interest rates, or economic downturns, and what we can—how we respond. Maintaining a disciplined approach to saving and investing by avoiding reactive decisions based on fear or avarice is the best way to manage and grow the resources at your disposal.

With summer upon us, many are ready for a well-deserved break or vacation. As you recharge, this season can also be a good time to reflect on your broader financial picture—especially how others’ choices are affecting your own.

We often view our financial status as a series of purely personal decisions—what to save, how to invest, when to spend. But these decisions rarely happen in a vacuum. Whether it’s a family member’s needs, a business partner’s influence, or shared living arrangements, the choices of others in our lives have a real impact. Some helpful tips are found in the articles below. As summer brings families together, we’re more aware than ever how interconnected our financial decisions can be.

A significant new bill was just signed into law, locking in the 2017 tax cuts and introducing new deductions across its 900+ pages. While a few new tax breaks could fatten your refund next spring, there are also some belt-tightening measures for federal healthcare, food-aid, and student loan programs that could impact millions—so don’t tune out.

What does this mean for you? In the short term, your paycheck probably won’t shrink, and you might notice a little extra thanks to extended tax rates. But with cuts to some benefits programs, it’s more important than ever to contribute to a safety net, so keep growing your emergency fund and investing for your future. With steady money habits, you’re less vulnerable to policy swings—Congress might cast the votes, but you steer your own financial direction.

As headlines shift away from the recent flooding in Texas and elsewhere, the real work for many families is just beginning. Recovery after a tragedy often happens in phases: there’s the immediate response, and then there’s the longer, quieter rebuild. While initial support often quickly fades, the true progress comes from patience and steady effort over time.

Rebuilding—whether it’s after a natural disaster, a financial setback, or a major life event—always starts with a first step, however small. It’s learning to honor the memories of the past while embracing new beginnings and celebrating the progress you make along the way. The process can feel slow, but remember, this is where meaningful change and growth take root.

In the world of finance and investing, we often talk about numbers, trends, and strategies. But equally important to long-term success is a quality that doesn’t appear on balance sheets: humility. Recognizing what we know and—perhaps more importantly—what we don’t is essential to making sound financial decisions.

It is tempting to believe AI will provide clear and reliable answers. While these technologies hold significant promise, they can also produce “hallucinations”—outputs that appear confident and authoritative while being factually incorrect.

A difficult truth in life is that if we are never wrong, we probably aren’t trying hard enough. There is comfort in sticking with what we know and in reinforcing our assumptions rather than questioning them. Psychologists call this confirmation bias: the inclination to seek out evidence that tells us we’re right and to avoid what might suggest otherwise.

However, markets are unpredictable by nature. Economic conditions shift, new opportunities arise, and risks evolve. A willingness to ask, “What if I’m wrong?” is a safeguard, not an embarrassment. It’s a mindset that protects your assets, positioning you for long-term growth.

In financial terms, burn rate describes how quickly money goes out compared with how fast it comes in. Everyone has one — it’s simply the rhythm of how we use our income to support our lives. When you understand your own burn rate, you gain insight into what keeps your household running smoothly and where there’s room to build flexibility.

Most of the time, that rate feels invisible. Paychecks arrive, bills get paid, and life moves forward on autopilot. But when that rhythm breaks — whether from a layoff, a career change, family challenges or even a short-term disruption like a government shutdown — your personal burn rate suddenly comes into focus.

When it comes to investing, the biggest threat to your portfolio isn’t the market—it’s your own brain. Evolution equipped us to survive in a world of immediate threats, not to stay calm in the face of volatile markets or abstract probabilities. As a result, our instincts often push us toward short-term comfort and away from long-term wealth.

We buy when others are euphoric, sell when fear takes hold, and convince ourselves that this time is different. As decades of behavioral research have shown, investors usually lose not because the odds are stacked against them—but because their biases and impulses overpower their logic.

Most investors are familiar with risk tolerance — a psychological measure that reflects how you perceive risk and respond to market fluctuations. While understanding risk tolerance is essential, it doesn’t tell the whole story.

Risk capacity, in contrast, is an objective measure of your financial circumstances — not your feelings about risk. It analyzes your ability to absorb potential losses without jeopardizing your long-term goals. Factors such as your time horizon to retirement, income stability, savings rate, and future spending needs all determine how much risk you can afford to assume.

For decades, U.S. Treasury bonds were regarded as among the safest of investments—so reliable, in fact, that they came to be viewed as the foundation of the global financial system.

But today we are facing an environment where those old assumptions may no longer hold true. With U.S. debt growing at an accelerating pace, confidence in Treasuries is being tested in ways we have not seen for generations. What was once considered unquestionably secure is now subject to doubt, challenging the traditional idea that there are permanent “safe havens” in investing.

Many of us are taught that wealth is the bridge to the life we want—that if we work and sacrifice enough now, we’ll eventually arrive at a time and place where we can finally “live.”

But there’s a danger in that kind of tradeoff. When we give up what is good, meaningful, and nourishing in the present in exchange for a distant promise of freedom later, we overlook a simple truth: the person you will be years from now will not be the same person you are today. You “future you” may no longer want the things you sacrificed to earn them.

Please pass the pumpkin pie—and that paperwork you’ve been putting off.

Thanksgiving is about good food, friends, family, and gratitude. But it’s also a rare pause in our busy year, a moment when everyone finally ends up in the same room. Between the laughter and the leftovers, it might be the perfect time to do something unexpectedly meaningful: talk together about the future.

The end of another year is the perfect time to take stock of where you stand to make the most of opportunities that can benefit you now and in the future. Two of the most important ways are through a year-end financial review and strategic charitable giving.

A year-end review helps ensure that your financial plan stays aligned with your goals. It’s an opportunity to assess how your portfolio has performed and whether adjustments are appropriate, allowing you to evaluate whether your savings, spending and investment strategies are on track for retirement or other life goals. It’s also the time to review whether your tax planning, insurance coverage, and estate strategies still fit your current situation.

Every year leaves a trail of numbers behind—evidence of choices, effort, and focus. Each contribution, payment, and investment of your resources becomes part of a much bigger picture: the story of how daily discipline transforms into lasting progress. Steady, thoughtful action has a quiet brilliance that can compound over time.

This final stretch of the year can be a strategic one financially. While visions of sugar plums dance in some heads, many people are finalizing contributions, completing charitable gifts, reviewing coverage, and ensuring financial strategies still align with goals for the future. You don’t have to go it alone – I can help you save time, close loops and set the stage for a confident start to a new year while feeling strong about your performance in this one.